Israel's concerns with the Egyptian tumult

By Ori Z. Soltes

Religion has always been interwoven with politics. We can trace the use of religion for political purposes from sculptures of the Pharaoh Chafra suggesting the imprimatur of the god Horus, to American political candidates who assert that they will restore our country to the sort of governance that God would approve.

This interweave is endemic to the Middle East as far back as we can read its history, and certainly to Egypt. In the modern era, the father of Arab nationalism was an Albanian of putative Arab descent named Mehmet (Muhhamad) Ali. He served in the Ottoman army, but by 1805, after leading the military opposition to Napoleon's incursion within the region, Mehmet Ali asserted an independent stance against the Sultan and established himself as the ruler of Egypt. Although a fairly secular Muslim for his era, he developed an alliance with the Wahhabi religious leadership in and around Macca, in order to legitimize himself in the eyes of the Arab Muslims. His power eventually extended through Syro-Palestine where this first independent Arab state threatened Ottoman hegemony in the region. Once he was secure, by 1817, he turned on the Wahhabis, betraying the religious allies he no longer needed.

One might say that Egypt in the 20th century reversed this pattern. The Muslim Brotherhood, founded in the city of Ismailia in March 1928 by Hassan al-Banna sought to use politics for religious purposes. A group that began with seven individuals, grew to perhaps as many as two million members in several Middle Eastern countries by the end of the 1940s. The Brotherhood's avowed goal was and remains to be a force beyond Egypt's borders. Its aspiration was and is to create a unified Muslim empire from Spain to India led by a centralized caliphate that governs according to the Qur'an and Sunna-based Sharia.

Of course, as with every religious group, political or otherwise, the key question is that of exactly how one interprets the Qur'an and the sunna to produce a Sharia that unequivocally fulfills God's will. Is more than one interpretation permitted? If not, how can a diverse population ever be made to succumb to only one dogma? Does the Brotherhood share precisely the same understanding of Sharia and God's will as, say, Hezbollah, the very name of which means "Party of God" and alludes to the conviction of its members that it acts in fulfillment of God's will? What of Hamas--which began as an offshoot of the Brotherhood in Gaza and the West Bank? How commensurate are the interests of the Brotherhood in social justice, eradicating poverty and corruption, and political freedom with its goal of spiritual unity?

Meanwhile, from the alleged assassination attempt on Gamal Abdul Nasser in 1954 to the present Mubarak regime, the Brotherhood has been officially banned in Egypt; under Nasser, thousands of its members were systematically jailed and tortured. Nonetheless, it has continued as a strong oppositional force through surrogates: in the 2005 Egyptian parliamentary elections Brotherhood candidates running as independents won 88 seats (20 percent); in contrast, other opposition groups won 14 seats. Not long ago those seats were deprived of a voice by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

But these last few weeks have suddenly changed things. Inspired, no doubt by the success of the Tunisian opposition in driving its dictatorial president from power, the opposition in Egypt has risen up. The Brotherhood stayed initially in the background, allowing a younger cadre of protesters to take the lead--internet-savvy leaders who can and do call for crowd mobilization through Facebook. Mohamed ElBaradei, diplomat and Nobel Peace laureate, returned from self-imposed exile to join in the fray and has, as of this moment, risen to a position of overarching leadership. Regarded as a secularist, ElBaradei has received significant support by the Brotherhood. The forces of opposition and support for Mubarak have begun to clash. The repercussions of the struggle have already been felt from Yemen to Jordan.

Not surprisingly, the situation has the Israeli government in a paroxysm of concern. If Mubarak falls--Israel's cold but firm peace partner for three decades, even with regard to how to stifle Hamas in Gaza--what will happen to that peace? Will ElBaradei, if he assumes an ongoing leadership role, succumb to the Muslim Brotherhood's ideology or temper it? Will Sharia prevail in Egypt--and if so, how will it be articulated? Will the religion-based notion that God does not want a non-Muslim state within the heart of the envisioned Muslim empire prevail? Will the young enthusiasts who spurred the upheaval, and none of whom was born before the peace--and the young army officers who never tasted war, much less defeat, against Israel--seek a new opportunities for conflict?

There are other implications, both within and beyond Egypt, both obviously important to Israel and more subtly significant. If the peace collapses, how will that affect other Arab countries' relations with Israel? Economically, what of the steady stream of oil that Israel purchases from Egypt? How will this affect the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations that are already so difficult? What of the non-Muslim minority--most obviously, the Coptic Christians, whose main church was attacked by Muslim fanatics and the next day protected by squadrons of Muslims determined that Egypt not become a bastion of religious intolerance?

If all of this sounds too complex and the possibilities too numerous, it should. There are two immutable truths about the region: that its history-long issues are a tangled web of religion, politics, ethnicity, nationalism and economics--and that one can rarely prophesize in this heartland of prophecy regarding what sudden changes tomorrow will bring.

Ori Z. Soltes teaches at Georgetown University. He is the author of "Untangling the Web: Why the Middle East is a Mess and Always Has Been" (Bartleby Press).

By Ori Z. Soltes |  February 3, 2011; 12:46 PM ET Save & Share:                 
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