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Debate

U.S. Drew Too Thin a Red Line

In two op-eds today, David Ignatius and William Perry called for a "new deterrent" and "new red line" that would make North Korea heed Washington's threats. How would this look? Read their op-eds and join the debate.

From William Perry:

...the greatest danger to the United States from this program is not that North Korea would be willing to commit suicide by firing a missile at the United States, even if it did develop one of sufficient range. Rather, it is the possibility that the North Koreans will sell one of the bombs or some of their plutonium to a terrorist group. The president has warned North Korea not to transfer any materials from its nuclear program. But the warnings we have sent to North Korea these past six years have gone unheeded and its acts unpunished. It is not clear that this latest one will have any greater effect. If a warning is to have a chance of influencing North Korea's behavior it has to be much more specific. It would have to promise retaliation against North Korea if a terrorist detonated a nuclear bomb in one of our cities. It must be backed by a meaningful forensics program that can identify the source of a nuclear bomb.


From David Ignatius:


President Bush seemed to be drawing this red line of accountability when he warned Monday: "The transfer of nuclear weapons or material by North Korea to states or non-state entities would be considered a grave threat to the United States, and we would hold North Korea fully accountable for the consequences of such action."

....Tough words, but are they credible? That's why the second essential pillar of a new security regime is a restoration of deterrence. The Bush administration warned North Korea over and over that it would face severe consequences if it tested a nuclear weapon. So did China and Russia, but Kim Jong Il went ahead anyway. Iranian leaders are similarly unimpressed by Bush's saber rattling, viewing America as a weakened nation bogged down by an unwinnable war in Iraq. To restore deterrence, the West needs to stop making threats it can't carry out. And the United States must salvage its strategic position in Iraq -- either by winning or organizing the most stable plan for withdrawal.

What should the new red line be? What's an effective deterrent? Weigh in below.

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allen shaw:

"the greatest danger to the United States from this program is not that North Korea would be willing to commit suicide by firing a missile at the United States, even if it did develop one of sufficient range. Rather, it is the possibility that the North Koreans will sell one of the bombs or some of their plutonium to a terrorist group. The president has warned North Korea not to transfer any materials from its nuclear program. But the warnings we have sent to North Korea these past six years have gone unheeded and its acts unpunished." from editor.

"Of course there is concern for human life, AMERICAN human life. If we fail to act now (as we have over the last decade) we risk the loss of hundreds of thousands of American lives if and when Dear Leader hands off his nukes to the myriad of terrorist organizations at his fingertips. At the very least a complete embargo enforced by the USN should be implemented. While a direct attack would kill possibly hundreds of thousands we would be doing those who survive a favor by bringing democracy and stability and an end to famine, once the north is democratically re-unified with the south.

Posted by: Bill | October 12, 2006 07:31 PM "

bill, it is imagned the Ks of us life will be in danger at the fingertip NK leader in some future date. why don't you think that why King doing this? for what benefit? tell me. why King want to get this nuke? until you figure it out, you can get some reply for yourself.

to editor, same Q for you. figure out.

Bill:

Of course there is concern for human life, AMERICAN human life. If we fail to act now (as we have over the last decade) we risk the loss of hundreds of thousands of American lives if and when Dear Leader hands off his nukes to the myriad of terrorist organizations at his fingertips. At the very least a complete embargo enforced by the USN should be implemented. While a direct attack would kill possibly hundreds of thousands we would be doing those who survive a favor by bringing democracy and stability and an end to famine, once the north is democratically re-unified with the south.

Yousuf Hashmi:

on the days of cold war i remeber i read one detailed article in either time or newsweek that how the US is monitoring soviet sub marines and their neuclear war heads.

the technology was to detect the neuclear radiation and then keep tracking the equipment. the story also detailed a tunnel system in US which can transport these missiles with out detecting by soviet union.

the relevent question is that if those systems after 20 years are functional, upgraded or scraped.

in case if they are still operational then what is the problem of tracking one or 2 warheads which are expected to be still in crude form and having fragile shelter and supposed to be easily trackable.

the point raised by editorial board is very relevent . a strong deterrent is the call of the day

Dennis M. Mitchell:

Try one-on-one bilateral talks once more. Draw the red line when you're face to face with Kim Jong Il. Offer him monetary, aid assistance, lifting of blockades and assurances the U.S. will not attack in exchange for a complete removal of all nuclear weapons and weapon-making material. Tell him these are the terms. Agree with them (along with agreeing to not pursue weapons in the future) or don't But if you don't this is what will happen: You will be removed as leader of North Korea and we'll dismantle your nuke program for you.. through whatever means we must take (preferably military). An ultimatum is our last option after a preemptive military strike or severe sanctions - which I don't think can be achieved because of China. The most important thing is that military action must be an absolute last resort and we need to be absolutely convincing in making our case to the rest of the world that military action was necessary. We don't need another Iraq/Saddam/WMDs of an even more massive and potentially damaging scale.

Judge C. Crater:

Convince China to 'help' in any kind of military action and Kim would give up immediately after the bombs started to fall. China doesn't seem to realize that any kind of surgical strike of which they approve would end this very quickly. This doesn't have to be the Korean War all over again. If China attacks North Korea (sounds weird, don't it?) even in an extremely limited way (???) NK's generals would counsel surrender in a heartbeat.

China has a VERY antiquated view of the situation. Too bad.

SomeWhatLucid:

The red line has already been crossed by NK. We have tried both aid and a stern stance, but Il doesn't seem to be interested running his state in a respectable manner. I am NOT pushing for military action, but I think it's a mistake for people to think that we can't use force as a viable option, just because we are involved in Iraq. Between 7th fleet in Asia and our airforces in the region, we have more than enough firepower to make Kim keep his head down and turn back the clock on some of his assets. He wants to remain in power at all costs. I think he would get the message, and I don't think he would be stupid enough to allow the conflict to spill over his borders into the rest of the region.

Jack Scarborough:

I believe that Kim Jong Il possibly may respond to U. S., Japanese, South Korean, and Chinese diplomatic initiatives to provide North Korea necessary food products, medical aid, and political dialog to assure North Korea that no military initiative(s) are planned by these countries against North Korea PROVIDED that North Korea observes normal and conventional political discourse with its Asian neighbors, reasonable and proper care of its citizens, and appropriate discourse with the international community.

Ken:

Just hope "the Rev" stays sober when he reads this aricle and begin firing his bytes to the world.

kremsdorf@adelphia.net:

No one has mentioned the possibility of a N. Korean A-test that could create or release some Godzilla type creature that could attack Japan.

Wayne:

...Bush has things so fouled up! We should hope and pray that these "small" countries that hate us now don`t have the sense, ability and/or desire to join forces and waste us while we are worn so thin......WS

PostGlobal is an interactive conversation on global issues moderated by Newsweek International Editor Fareed Zakaria and David Ignatius of The Washington Post. It is produced jointly by Newsweek and washingtonpost.com, as is On Faith, a conversation on religion. Please send us your comments, questions and suggestions.