Princeton Lyman - Somalia edges closer to war each day. Ethiopia and the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) have positioned troops just a few miles from each other inside Somalia. Ethiopia and the United States have meanwhile staked out increasingly belligerent positions toward the CIC. Ethiopia's Prime Minister has scoffed at moderation as only encouraging "terrorists." The U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Jendayi Frazer has charged that the CIC is now controlled by Al Qaeda cell individuals. American intelligence personnel are seen increasingly in Addis Ababa, suggesting the U.S. will back an Ethiopian military action. A war in Somalia would easily spread throughout the Horn, with refugees streaming into Kenya and Djibouti. War could once again erupt between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The U.S. has pushed through a UN Security Council resolution that authorizes an African peacekeeping force that would presumably offer an alternative to Ethiopian troops in the country. But the CIC is firmly opposed to any such force. It is hard to see how any African country could deploy troops against the determined opposition of the CIC without furthering the prospect of war.
The U.S. seems to be playing a dangerous game with few chips. What is needed urgently is a diplomatic initiative with moderate supporters of the CIC, in particular Saudi Arabia and Egypt. They must be as concerned over a potential Al Qaeda outpost in the Red Sea region as is the United States. Getting their influence to bear on the CIC to moderate its belligerent positions, along with similar openings to the Somali business community that supports the CIC, is a way to step back from a war that will not serve American purposes at all.
Princeton Lyman is Adjunct Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
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Comments (16)
Why does Ethiopia and Somalia have a long standing beef...what seems to be the problem?
March 12, 2007 6:40 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on March 12, 2007 06:40
Why now why not before. zenawi should serve his poeople who are suffering aids and stervertion.his people are dying malnutrition. he should safe them, they need more than somali people. I'LL SAY THE UN IS TOO LATE Now,the was time that the somali people need them and they didn't do something becouse of the warlods and now they are supporting the warlods and the ethiopian. the islamic court is doing better job now let them finish their job. i believe the islamic job was doing great job.
December 25, 2006 11:11 PM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 25, 2006 23:11
another foes idea......Ethiopia is not searching for war is TPLF that whats to stay in power by crushing the UIC helps them to put their puppet government in power and divided somalia into three region PUNTLAND SOMALILAND AND SOMALIA(TGF)and let them fight each other.....that is meles dream and say good bye to ICU or whatever it stands for (Amharas party) and OLF (Oromo party) by confusing the western world.......man this dude meles is freaking smart I wounder they call him the (city-boy). I believe the UIC is not danger to Ethiopia but it TPLF will create that.
December 24, 2006 3:33 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 24, 2006 03:33
The territorial integrity of Somalia should be respected. No more preemptive wars!
December 21, 2006 10:41 PM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 21, 2006 22:41
Mr. Lyman's article is a good beginning for the US administration if it will listen but just like in Iraq they will later claim we all thought there were terrorists in Somalia. Here is a brief quote from the times of London - "The problem with the US approach is that it ignores the will of the Somali people. Most Somalis approve of the council because it restored peace and security to their country. And they detest the official Government because it includes many of the war lords who were banished in June, including President Yusuf, widely regarded as the original Somali warlord and an Ethiopian stooge."
December 19, 2006 2:10 PM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 19, 2006 14:10
The professor got it right 100% thank you for level headed analysis of the situation. And to the Zenawi supporter who are itching for fight because you think Somalia is weak and divided and want take an advantage of the situation. We can still defeat you divided if you came to fight us alone. As usual you always hide behind foreign powers the 77 war the Russian and Cuba fought for you because you could not fought for you self. And now you are hiding behind the United States hoping it fight for you and deliver Somalia to you dream on this not an American fight leave them out of it is between us and the dictator in Addis Ababa
December 19, 2006 1:49 PM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 19, 2006 13:49
The professor got it right 100% thank you for level headed analysis of the situation. And to the Zenawi supporter who itching for fight because you think Somalia is weak and divided and want take advantage of the situation. We can still defeat you divided if you came to fight us alone. As usual you always hiding behind foreign powers the 77 war the Russian and Cuba fight for you because you could not fight for you self. And now you hiding behind the United States hoping it fight for you and deliver Somalia to you dream on this not American fight leave them out of it is between us and the dictator in Addis Ababa
December 19, 2006 1:45 PM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 19, 2006 13:45
Meles Zenawi needs wars to survive. He has an obsession with Somalia as well. I think The Courts are bringing back hope after so many years of chaos and mayhem.
Menace Zenawi is the man singer Bono called a "bipolar" and oppresses his own people. It's naive to think he would bring any solution to the people of Ethiopia, let alone Somalia.
Ethiopia proves the United States with false "intelligent" reports about the events in Somalia and has been doing so for so many years. I doubt there will ever be a relative peace in Somalia as long as Ethiopia's current leader (who was also once a warlord himself) is in power.
The Courts have brought back normal life and have the support of the populace, fighting them and installing the unpopular regime in Baidao will not work. The Somalis have taken it on themselves to bring about a solution and they have done well, specially in Mogadishu and the surrounding areas that are now under the control of the Courts. Their work is simply amazing.
Somalia does not need any more wars, troops and weapons.
December 19, 2006 7:40 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 19, 2006 07:40
Everyone needs to understand the problem before jumping up with solutions. Why has US and multinational troops left Somalia on 1994. To teach Somali's a lesson and let them self destruct.
Both Ethiopia and US have been actively supporting the warlords that caused so much mayhem and misery to all Somalis. Still the warlords have the blessing of the West and its allies. Why should not we give a chance to CIC to prove itself after all they have the support of the majority of the people?
December 19, 2006 4:53 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 19, 2006 04:53
An astute and well read barometer of what's going on in Somalia.
As usual the neoconservative US led gov't of George W. BUsh is narrowily concerned with only its self-interests of terrorism while stoking the flames of conflict.
Ethiopia and Somalia have a long running fued. The US under Clinton supported various factions and the Somali warlords wound-up controlling 99% of the country. The fear, looting, lawlessness that followed haunted Somalis and aliented many from US support for these criminals. Now it seems the belligerent and warmongering Ethiopian gov't, whose former Christain dictator Mirian was convicted recently of genocide, are taking a page from Bush's doctrine. He want to "preemptively" invade Somalia and prevent the CIC from controlling Baidoa.
If the US gets involved, it risks another bloodshed on top of Iraq, more treasury wasted, and more Somali and various Muslim popular opinion turn anti-American. The result will be a hastening decline of the world sole hyperpower. One would think Messier George would learn from BlackHawk Down and the Iraqi Fiasco, but he remains as dangerously-neocon warmongering as ever.
December 19, 2006 12:35 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 19, 2006 00:35
The most significant role can Ethiopia or US play would be to eliminate such terrorist group from the horn of Africa. The so called Islamic court organization clearly specified its statues quo, which doesn't require a critical thinking to know it is a terrorist institute. Sitting for dialogue with a terrorist is simply means accommodating their wrong ideology. Therefore, there should be no option, but to eliminate such a terrorist group.
December 18, 2006 2:57 PM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 18, 2006 14:57
Appeasing terrorists and extremists will only encourage the.
Let us be realistic, the likes of Colonel Huseine Tahir is wanted in Ethiopia for genocide for the war in 1977 and his associates are needed in the US for bombing their embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.
What does appeasing a criminal mean to the world we live in. The US Embassy bombing is similar to White House bombing. The Ambassadors are representatives of US Government abroad. Imagine what will be the next strategy of Alqaeda, keep on bombing and the US will keep on shrinking.
Ethiopia has lived for 7,000 years being challenged by the likes of the current set of terrorists in Asmara and Moqadisho and knows how to deal with them. The Americans have been in this picture only for 230 years or so. The lesson from an old Empire to the New babe in the block is never allow terrorists to get away with the law. Thousands were massacred by Colonel Husesine Tahir who is masquerading as a Mad Sheikh of the Horn. He will die pretenging that is is a mullah, it our job to show to the Somalies and the Muslim world this is an apostate who does not even knonw the Kuran.
The Prophet has said to his blievers, never declare war on Ethiopia, the country that gave refuge to his people during the First Hegira.
So, with or without liberal scholars support Ethiopia will not allow terrorsts to take over its historical kingdom that has lasted over 7,000 years of recorded governance.
We advise the Americans do not cut and run, your grand children will suffer for it.
December 18, 2006 10:06 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 18, 2006 10:06
If the world left the Somalis alone, then they would have sorted out their problems. The Arabs have their own agenda, the Ethiopians have their agenda, the USA has it's own. What about the man in the street in Somalia? Prehaps, if the world helped him, when the warlords were in power, then he wouldn't look to the Islamists. The Ethiopians, are currently in Somalia and they should leave. They shouldn't be there, it's not their land. Among Somalis, nationlism trumps and they are fiercely independent. For the Americans, I say this, You will pay for your short-term foreign policy and aligning yourself once again with dictators and tyrants. Somalia is not the only case-study.
December 18, 2006 4:19 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 18, 2006 04:19
Really the Islamic Courts are huge problem Any one in the region.
Even I my Self understanding the Islamic Courts are against our will, this country now making progres, but if any one likes to present this civilizing country must oppose the Islamic Courts.
Mean while I can say self declared Islamic Courts are behaving the same of faction leaders, they are harrasing every one.
December 18, 2006 3:59 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 18, 2006 03:59
Princeton Layman has got it wrong. Ethiopia is not looking for war. It is forced into a war. Council of Islamic Courts is a new name for Al Ithad Al Islamia of the 1990s that was engaged in terrorist activities in Ethiopia. The leadership of CIC have direct links to al qaeda. Not only that, the leadership of CIC has declared jihad on Ethiopia and has made its intention to invade and grab Ethiopian territory in their grand shceme to create Greater Somalia. CIC is a dangerous and fanatic group that is a clear and imminent threat to Ethiopia. The government of Ethiopia does not need approval from any body to neutralize a deadly enemy like CIC.
Princetoon Layman is another western apologist for terrorists. It is a shame.
December 18, 2006 3:36 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 18, 2006 03:36
The problem with Islamic Courts is that they are using the peace dialogue only as a tactic for further territorial expansion. They are determined to create a taleban-like state in Somalia and nothing is going to make them change their mind or moderate their stance. Nobody. What really compounds the problem is Eritrea's huge involvement and intention to use the jihadist UIC as weapon against Ethiopia.
A Closer look at the problem will show that they are many actors involved in this conflict for their own agenda and Ethiopa, not the US, is the main target of those. This is not simply a "internal somali" conflict, it's a regional one and hence needs a truly regional solution.
December 18, 2006 12:47 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 18, 2006 00:47