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A New Dawn in Pakistan

Today is a new dawn in Pakistan - not a perfect dawn, but a dawn nonetheless. As millions celebrate the reinstatement of the twice-deposed Pakistani Chief Justice, Iftikhar Chaudhry, doubts about the country's democratic experiment are being cautiously laid to rest amidst economic and security woes. Pakistan's adolescent democracy is heading toward its rite of passage. But growing up is never easy. Pakistan continues to face impervious Islamist insurgents in the north and intransigent ethnic separatists in the south, and is surrounded by domineering Indians to the east and ambivalent Americans and Afghans to the west. While its unique ways and means beckon U.S. support, Pakistan is considered a bankrupt nuclear-armed tinderbox. Will this new dawn push political parties, lawyers, students, journalists - and yes, the historically skeptical military - to reset the system and salvage Pakistan?

Yes it will; and it should. A mentor of mine in Islamabad told me recently that he had protested against dictators in the sixties and eighties, but had never imagined a day when Pakistan - at the brink of a breakup, economic collapse, and military losses - would then almost suddenly pull back and reunite in unprecedented ways. He reinforced the dictum buried deep in the Pakistani creed: dictators steal dreams, politicians steal hope, and the people steal power from both. For more than sixty years the Pakistani people have been stuck in a tug-of-war between ineffective politicians and towering generals; between democracy without governance and autocracy without law; between a state strengthening a nation and competing nations weakening it; between Islam as a unifying identity and a national identity crisis; and between countries we learn to hate (India) and countries we can't learn to love (the United States).

Today, more than half of 175 million Pakistanis are living under undemocratic or extra-constitutional rule in Punjab and the Swat valley. The International Monetary Fund is providing life support to a high-prices-low-jobs economy showing little signs of recovery. A counterinsurgency policy process tainted with divergent security interests - good Taliban vs. bad Taliban - has led to poor planning, implementation, and evaluation. Perplexed, the United States has all but given up on joint intelligence and military operations in Pakistan's tribal areas - Al Qaeda's sanctuary. Instead, frequent drone attacks, despite the political outcry in Islamabad over collateral damage, continue as Washington completes a U.S.-Pakistan/Afghanistan policy review, focusing on military aid, training and equipment.

This dawn brings hope to end this cycle of state failure and ephemeral stability. While millions are placated by Islamabad's decision to free politicians, journalists, and students, time is not on the side of the current Pakistan Peoples Party government. The following political, military and economic steps must be taken with judicious speed.

First, President Zardari should unilaterally and unequivocally give all powers back to Prime Minister Yusuf Reza Gillani that was consolidated unconstitutionally by his predecessor, President Musharraf. Second, Gillani's efforts to reconcile with the second largest political party in the largest province, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz of Punjab, should be encouraged and expedited. The federal ministers for defense, information, foreign affairs, interior, and finance must form the backbone of the upcoming offensive against the wars on poverty, terrorism and ethnic and sectarian strife; free from partisan pandering, their selection should reflect experience, expertise and innovativeness.

Third, an overhaul of the counterinsurgency policy process is needed to dwarf demands from the United States for more trainers and equipment. Pakistan national security policy, while traditionally under the domain of the military, was unnecessarily and completely ignored by the current regime. This policy pause must resume and put on fast forward. The Prime Minister announced last year that the National Counter Terrorism Commission may be a good place to integrate the vast variety of intelligence, diplomatic, judicial and military efforts amongst local, and with U.S. and Afghan agencies. Questions about troop morale, peace deals with local Taliban, and military's reluctance to hold and build an area after clearing it must be at the center of any security policy reform. Moreover, parliamentary committees on intelligence and defense should be given oversight and appropriations authority to truly own the war against insurgents, and deter Islamabad from signing blank checks to Washington. Beyond institutional mission statements, pragmatic metrics of success must determine review and outcome.

Fourth, and perhaps the most important, the economy must be fixed in tandem with decreasing physical insecurity. This can be achieved by effective counterinsurgency and securing foreign aid and loans in the short term, enhancing comparative advantage of prime exports such as textiles and technology services in the medium term, and building human capital by large investments in education in the long term. The ultimate goal ought to be a coalition government partnered with the military and intelligence agencies on national security interests, as well as a government supportive of an independent judiciary and a viable economy.

After last year's national elections, Pakistan's transitional democracy has entered a second phase. Not everyone who has fought for change is praise worthy: judges have abused power, lawyers have joined corrupt political parties, and sanctimonious politicians from both sides of the aisle have coerced Supreme Court justices and ratified military coups. But I can say this with certainty: this week, the good and the bad defeated the ugly.

Haider Mullick is a Senior Fellow at the U.S. Joint Special Operations University, focusing on U.S.-South Asia Relations.. He can be reached at www.haidermullick.com

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Comments (18)

manishyt Author Profile Page:

Pakistani Society Is Dangerously Delusional. It Must Either Secularize Or Implode
Pakistan’s challenges today are so extreme that they represent an existential threat to the state itself. However, after years of being fed a warped view of the world – from biased school text books, inflammatory articles in the Urdu language press, and fiery Friday mosque sermons – many Pakistanis are living in denial. Pakistani society has become dangerously delusional.
http://dailyexception.com/2009/03/24/pakistani-society-is-dangeroulsy-delusional-it-must-either-secularize-or-implode/

DebChatterjee Author Profile Page:

Destruction of Pakistan's radical Islam base (Qaeda) should be the motto of every civilized, secular country. Pakistan is a terrorist state and supports LeT (Lashkar-e-Tayyiba), despite Pakistan's demands that it has "neutralized" Laskhar following 26/11 Mumbai attacks. The recent protracted fighting in Kashmir (Kupwara) was claimed by LeT as its own doing. (And President Barack Obama plans on "appeasing" such radical Muslims, and Fareed Zakaria suggests that one should also deal with extremist Muslims. (Fareed argues that Islamic extremists are not necessarily terrorists, and hence are OK for sharing a cup of tea at a upscale cafe.)

http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?sectionName=HomePage&id=63ce11d6-2fb4-47c9-90aa-4f39b9623e9b&ParentID=ee2c8645-1d49-418f-a90b-562183369196&Headline=LeT+takes+responsibilty+for+Kupwara+encounter

Pakistan is a terrorist state with incompetent, savvy liars such as the wife-murderer Asif Ali Zardari. Pakistan and India need to fight a war to end this slow bleeding of India. The outcome of that war would be such that either Pakistan or India (but not both) should geographically exist.

cougar_gal06 Author Profile Page:

"Fourth, and perhaps the most important, the economy must be fixed in tandem with decreasing physical insecurity. This can be achieved by effective counterinsurgency and securing foreign aid and loans in the short term, enhancing comparative advantage of prime exports such as textiles and technology services in the medium term, and building human capital by large investments in education in the long term."

The Borgen Project (www.borgenproject.org) has some great ideas on how to provide developing nations with the resources, tools and education to help grow crops and build themselves into a sustainable nation. Helping countries like Pakistan will help the U.S. build allies and eventually be able to trade resources with these countries. In the long run, helping those in need will also make America safer as there will be less people for the Taliban to easily recruit. There are 963 million people that go to sleep hungry every night and it seems that the problem will be never ending without the help from countries like the U.S., China and the U.N. giving foreign aid.

Somali Author Profile Page:

A lot of STUPID, really stupid Indians here. They chant the slogans the baby-murdering, cowardly, unmanly jew has taught them to chant. They have NOOOOOO original THINKING of their own. They even CANNOT send a simple satelite into space without jew help!!!!


When you stop being a SLAVE of the jew and when you stop chanting the dumb stupid slogans that the jew, your equally stupid master, taught you to chant like monkeys, then Muslims might pay attention to what you have to say!!!

examples of the india-jew chants that make NOOOOOO sense--ISLAMOFASCIM, nuke pakistan etc...

bostonbrahmin Author Profile Page:

DEBCHATTERJEE, so you have changed the plan from nuking Pakistan that you have pushed so strongly in the recent past? Seems like the armchair general has had a new thought.

Everybody, please ignore this "gentleman". Enough said.

DebChatterjee Author Profile Page:

Haider Mullick makes the case for indulging a bad child who needs time out and quarantine.

Pakistan is a basket case after 60 years. Yes, it is the uncultured village idiot (Pakistan) still learning how to behave in a decent urban neighborhood.

Islam licking is not going to be a panacea to the problems; rather such would add to the confusion and chaos that Pakistan finds itself in.

What Pakistan needs is ostracization from the global community. Just as "incarceration" has a higher probability of reforming the rascals, so if the other countries strip Pakistan of their diplomatic contacts and economic baggages, this country shall come to life. First there will be an explosion of radical Islam; Talibans will overtake Islamabad. Then, second, the other countries shall come to unite for a common cause: fight the Talibanized Pakistan. And finally, third, the war between the other countries (collective) and Taliban shall be the disastrous end of the radical Islam of Taliban, which is a self-fulfilling prophecy from the pages of Nostradamus.

zainulhuda Author Profile Page:

fahdp:

"From my readings, it appears that the ISI and CIA cooperate extensively in gleaning HUMANINT, which is used in the predator attacks."

I completely agree - my own readings indicate the same. Reportedly there are live PREDATOR feeds going to Pakistani command posts along the PAk-Afghan border, and most if not all strikes are now coordinated.

Its not a surprise that one of Pakistan's complaints, that the US was ignoring the Baitullah Mehsud network, has now been somewhat addressed with his network being targeted several times in the recent past.

Equally telling, the effectiveness of the strikes, based on reports issued from local sources in the Pakistani media, is now considerably higher.

Where before most of these reports would talk about the significant civilian casualties and lack of any militants in the area (dismissed as 'denial' by many in the West), now the same reports/journalists almost always validate militant casualties.

zainulhuda Author Profile Page:

vikram3:
"Facts say it is the Pakis who have been the aggressors in all wars against India."

Your 'facts' must be out of the 'brothers Grimm' then. In 948 it was the atrocities committed by the dicator Maharajah of kashmir against the Muslim population that sent tens of thousands of refugees into Pakistan prompting the Tribal invasion. It was the undemocratic selling away of the lives of millions of Kashmiris by a brutal dictator to the Indians, and their subsequent military intervention in support of the Maharajah's atrocities that prompted the Pakistani Army intervention, led by a British Commander.

In 1971 there is no question that after several years of supporting terrorists and destabilizing East Pakistan, India intervened to break apart Pakistan.

"Peaceful India" what a bloody joke - lapped up by the Islamophobes and Indian apologists.

vikram3 Author Profile Page:

"...domineering India to the east...". Hmmm. Another Islamo-fascist apologist.

Facts say it is the Pakis who have been the aggressors in all wars against India. Kargil was started by Paki' army, it was Muslim terorists who massacred Indian civilians in Mumbai last November....,

Your lies to spread Islamic ideology by claiming to be a victim do not stand up to the facts.

bostonbrahmin Author Profile Page:

I am surprised that forcing the Government to change its position based on so called mass movements is taken to be a positive aspect in the politics of any country.

All it indicates is the breakdown of the normal workings of the government and the rule of law.

It is not only true for the current question. For a long while we have had this "marches" that change goverment policy or the government itself in countries like the Philippines, the former Eastern Block countries as well as in South-east Asia. The mainstrem media obviously finds colorful content and perhaps a newsworthy real world thriller, and broadcasts it in real time, or places the item on the front page. The movement then receives the coverage that it seeks, and gains traction. Often the government gives in just to stop looking like Darth Vader in the international media.

What is lost in the process is that (a) the process repeats when the "other" party comes to power, rendering elections meaningless and (b) very often the voice of a small group of vocal people gets heard disproportionate to their numbers.

My issue is not with the current problems in Pakistan, but with the idea of direct, storm the Bastille type of "people power", and all the color-coded revolutions that the media keeps peddling.

fahdp Author Profile Page:

some excellent points made by the article. overall i agree with it.

i disagree on one point, which is that there is little cooperation between the US and Pakistani counterinsurgency strategy. From my readings, it appears that the ISI and CIA cooperate extensively in gleaning HUMANINT, which is used in the predator attacks.

umairqureshi Author Profile Page:

For all those obsessed about the impending Taliban takeover or non co-operation on the War on Terror, please understand that your concerns are not the only concerns of the 170 million people of Pakistan. We have other aims too, like an independent judiciary, a functioning democratic order, a teetering but promising economy. We will fix our problems our way, on our pace, without your advice. In any case, your advice is not exactly gold these days. The way things are going, before Pakistan fails, you would have lost two wars and had an imploding economy yourself. Who'd be the bigger failure then?

dmfarooq Author Profile Page:

Mr. Mullick's article paints a very emotional and unrealistic analysis of the events of last week . The writer has ignored the fact that the power of public demonstration on the streets (so called long march ) to free the judiciary is not going to help democracy . Contrary to his roasy picture , it was sad to watch a very weak coalition and head of government forced into an unprecedented reversal of an important constitutional decision . Why have a parliament ? These developments will haunt Federalism in Pakistan for a long time to come . Pakistan 's political events of last weak will not help to free judiciary of corruption , bring on the bench independent judges , and / or stabilize already shaken political power structure in Pakistan . Democracy even in its present form is faced up with big challenges . Political power in the last 61 years has mostly been controlled by the Army and shared between the military leaders with big land holders and moderate Islamists. Pakistan has not been able to strengthen political and public institutions with democratic traditions of give and take and tolerance , and that is where things have gone wrong in Pakistan . How democracy will ever take hold in Pakistan ? The essentials are just not there .


clearthinking1 Author Profile Page:

A NEW DAWN?

So, this time Sharif had the bigger mob, and he got what he wanted. Next time some other mob. Then, the Taliban mob or Islamist mob. Then, maybe the military mob.

This is called MOB RULE, Mr. Haider Mullick (a Senior Fellow at the U.S. Joint Special Operations University, focusing on U.S.-South Asia Relations) This is not an example of the rule of law, constitutional democracy, or unity in Pakistan.

Is this the quality of analysis at the U.S. Joint Special Operations University. I am embarrassed to read this propaganda. Are you?

What happened to high quality objective analysis in the American foreign policy establishment? We have Muslims like Haider and Fareed Zakaria giving advise that is against the best interest of the United States. These analysts clearly have residual loyalties to Islam which supersede America's national interest.

This article is not objective but biased wishful thinking.

mokapur1 Author Profile Page:

The previous commentator is absolutely right about the wishful thinking and day dreaming. Pakistnis are quick to blame the whole world for their problems and never look at themselves or never debate the whole idea of Pakistan, which Mr. Jinnah and his Muslim League Party were never able to explain to his people or the rest of the world.
Most of the readers will be surprised to know that debating the idea of pakistan and question Mr. Jinnah's ideology is against the current laws of pakistan. What do you expect from the primitive society?

HerschelSmith Author Profile Page:

I'll be blogging about this tonight perhaps, but this is pure claptrap. Happy claptrap, but nonetheless wrongheaded.

I wish this was as easy as simply uniting behind a few judges, but emotional highs will soon diminish and the reality of the control that the TTP has over the FATA and NWFP will still be there, the scheming use of the Taliban by the Pakistani Army as a counterbalance to their perceived (yet phantom) enemy of India will continue, and the Talibanization of Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad will continue unabated.

This emotional high will dissipate within a week, and then the Pakistani reluctance to participate in the GWOT will re-enter their psyche.

Best,

Herschel Smith
http://www.captainsjournal.com/

simplesimon33 Author Profile Page:

Being a Pakistani himself, Mr. Mullick should know better than anybody else that lots of what he wrote in this article is mere wishful thinking. Pakistanis have had a lot to celebrate in last two years – when Choudhry was reinstated by Musharrf, when Benazir Bhutto returned from exile, when Sharif returned from exile, when Musharraf resigned and now when Choudhry is reinstated again. But have any of these events really changed anything in Pakistan? Afterall Sharif is known to have replaced CJs when he did not like them either. It is the body polity of Pakistan that is so corrupt and feudal that nothing will change in spite of all the euphoria and eventful changes that take place. Sharif would have been unable to solve Pakistan’s problems just like Zardari. Choudhry may dethrone Zardari and Sharif may take over – that would only compound Pakistan’s problems since Sharif is lot more sympathetic to militants haunting Pakistan than Zardari. Afterall Sharif has met Osama bin Laden personally at least three times in Saudi Arabia in 1990s. Osama bin Laden had even made substantial campaign contribution to Nawaz Sharif’s reelection campaign in 1996. Osama congratulated Sharif publicly for exploding first Islamic nuclear bomb during Osama’s visit to Pakistan after Pakistan’s nuclear tests in 1998.

The real danger if Sharif takes over would be that he may try to settle the score with Musharraf. It is doubtful that Pakistani military will stand by idly if that happens. Then Pakistan will jump into another crisis. And the saga will continue.

yeolds Author Profile Page:

The author is trying to dress up the proposal as a new set of faces acting as a USA appointed figurehead serving USA needs, and to hell with the Pakistani wishes.

I do hope that the process strated by the long march will benefit PAkistanis, though for this to work they have to get rid of the USA imposed yoke of the past years.

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