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New Report on China's Economic Prospects

Here's Nouriel Roubini's take on China's economic prospects. [PDF]

Pretty negative and definitely a different line from the triumphalism emanating from the authorities in Beijing.

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Comments (10)

manishyt Author Profile Page:

What you are effectively saying is that if China (or the West) can get away with these kind of tactics, good for it. That is one approach to take. But it kind of undermines the whole point of international organizations which are trying to institute some "rules of the games". You are probably right, that it will be the law of the jungle out there. Hence the warning in this article.

Citizenofthepost-Americanworld Author Profile Page:

Following Dr. Doom's predictions, for a rather well-informed Chinese perspective, I recommend reading: "U.S. May Create “Super Inflation” and Make the World Suffer", by Fou Zhe and Ma Jianbo. It is reproduced on Watching America, from the People's Daily.


anakin1992 Author Profile Page:


it is so pathetic... i bet it is dr doom's students' work or some research paper under his name. so far, i have not yet seen a western economist who can understand chinese economy. as a professor, dr. doom at least has to show us some numbers/chart to support his conclusion. yeah, doom is a doom, but how much a doom is a big doom?

anakin1992 Author Profile Page:


well, if you can not accept the bully, either from china or the west, then you would be better to do better yourself and get stronger to be able to be a bully. otherwise, your concerns are pretty much as b*llshyt.

manishyt Author Profile Page:

Expect Trouble When China Has More Say At The IMF www.dailyexception.com

China is set to get an increased say at the IMF. It seems willing to put in capital to shore up the international financial institution, and so will have earned its place at the top table. However, we question what China will do with this new power. If events in Asia this week are anything to go by, we should be worried. China is using a territorial dispute in the Himalayas to withhold approval for loans from the Asian Development Bank to India. Such a move is unprecedented, particularly as the ADB has never in its history deferred a loan to India in such a manner. Clearly, China is using its influence at multilateral institutions as a means of furthering its strategic and military goals. We wonder what future bullying may be in store for the other countries of Asia (or the world) that don’t comply with China’s political views on topics it deems off limits such as Taiwan, Tibet or Tiananmen Square. China’s ascension in the ranks of world financial institutions may be inevitable. But the United States, and the West in general, need to make it abundantly clear from the outset that such type of behavior is not acceptable.

reader8288 Author Profile Page:

I have just read the report word by word. From an economic perspective, the report is more like a lobbyist material than an objective and independent analysis. If it were the latter, the report should list both positive and negative factors, but to our regret, only nagative ones are mentioned. The purpose of the author is very simple: China, please bear more burdens for world economic recovery, and let the US benefit more from you while you benefit less from the US.
As it's natural for American experts to fight for America's interest, I do not want to blame the authors of the report or the experts mentioned there. But Mr. Profret seems to be a little naive to fully trust what they say.

Maersk Author Profile Page:

I can see that the goon At WP is at work again.

malagasy Author Profile Page:

So, China-bashing WaPo neoconservatives once again vent their hatred at China, and the country's remarkable resilience in the face of blunders in a global near-Depression that clearly has its origins in the US and our policies (and Britain to a lesser extent). Why should anyone be surprised?

John, there are several reasons that China is flourishing right now and increasingly gaining a global leadership position.

1. High savings and a general propensity toward thrift, rather than unsustainable public/private debt and a bloated, outrageously oversized military sector that drains off talent and resources from the civilian economy. That's why today's Silicon Valleys are starting up in China (or occasionally in Germany) rather than in the United States.

2. Much more cautious, professional leadership and appreciation of the difficulty in making good diplomatic and foreign policy decisions.

3. A long-term view rooted in an ancient history as a country thousands of years old-- and little interest in being hectored by a newcomer like the United States (which, historically, we are).

It must get you neocons burning up inside, but China's going to do just fine and then some. They'll have their ups and downs in the process, but that's the great thing about a long-term outlook-- you can weather the bumps in the road and come out fine.

alex65 Author Profile Page:

Mr. Pomfret,

I must first admit that I am no economic expert.

However the parroted goal of "8%" growth rate is more like a propaganda than anything. This is just an example of "market economy with chinese characteristics".

The state propaganda machine is a powerful tool to make people feel better than reality. You will see chinese officials beating their chest promising a quick economic recovery while millions lost their jobs from the factories.

On the other hand one has to wonder if the overly negative western media makes people feel worse that reality and thus contribute to the vicious economic cycle.

Citizenofthepost-Americanworld Author Profile Page:

If that is the worst Dr. Doom has to say, Beijing may rejoice!

Now assuming Dr. Doom be right in his predictions, I for one, being in the US, would worry more, very much more about what he predicts will soon happen to the Western economies.

Back to Beijing, in future, I would not bother to discuss numbers with someone who writes: "The (Chinese) government authorities may report a figure closer to their 8% target regardless of the actual true figure." I would just ignore him.

Returning to the US, I would hope that by the time China shows the world how it got over that US generated depression and continues on its healthy growth path... we review all the predictions made by Western pundits on China's future, both in 2008 and in 2009... I bet that will then make for very amusing reading indeed.

So instead of hiding, dead silent, in our respective closets, let's revisit in due course, shall we?

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